Get 20 experts in a room and ask them to prognosticate, and you will get 30 opinions. This seems to be the case with this year’s group of IT trend spotters. While there is a difference of opinion in some areas (e.g., IT spending), there are a few topics that seem to be widely accepted as taking center stage in 2010.
The following sections summarize the findings of a number of the major IT trend spotters.
Foote Partners1 offers the following IT employment predictions for 2010:
Gartner concluded that the economic crisis has irrevocably changed the business oversight of IT investments. The tighter linkage established during 2009 between IT spending and business performance metrics is here to stay.2
According to a Forrester survey3 of more than 900 IT executives and technology decision makers in Canada, France, Germany, the UK and the US, IT contractors and consultants will see the deepest decreases in spending for their services, while systems integration and outsourcing services will have the greatest increases. Unlike the last recession from 2001 to 2002 when outsourcing and offshoring experienced growth from firms seeking to reduce internal IT costs, the spending picture for IT services this time around is much more mixed.
When asked about changes they expect to see in their organization’s total spending on IT services:
In a poll of 594 IT leaders, the annual 2010 State of the CIO Survey4 found that about two-thirds of CIOs, or 62 percent, have canceled or postponed projects during the past year as a result of unfavorable economic conditions. The projects on which they have focused are those that can enhance their company’s products and spur sales.
The “Five Infrastructure Trends to Watch for in 2010,” in CIO Update found that enterprise IT organizations will have no options but to reduce their IT spending. 2009-10 will see a significant drop in the IT operations budget. Upgrades, new technology adaptations and new tool implementations will be curtailed, deferred or canceled. Support agreements with product vendors and service providers will be renegotiated and IT will move to efficient “lights on” operations.5
The CIO Update article agreed with the State of the CIO Survey findings, noting that “projects that have short- and medium-term savings potential will gain acceptance.”6
The IDC Predictions team7 predicted that 2010 will be a year of modest recovery for the IT and telecommunications industries. Other industries will come out of the recession with a transformation agenda and will look to IT as an increasingly important lever for these initiatives.
The recovery, according to IDC, will not mean a return to the prerecession status quo, but rather, will result in a radically transforming marketplace, driven by surging demand in emerging markets, growing impact from the cloud services model, an explosion of mobile devices and applications, and the continuing rollout of higher-speed networks. IDC anticipates 3.2 percent growth for 2010, returning the IT industry to 2008 spending levels of about US $1.5 trillion.
Among the key findings of its “Top Predictions for IT Organizations and Users, 2010 and Beyond,” Gartner said that the balance of power in IT continues to shift toward external providers and users. It predicted that by 2012, 20 percent of businesses will own no IT assets.8
Among its trends for 2010, Verizon Business noted that businesses will make decisions in 2010 that will fuel their future growth. IP-based investments, such as unified communications, cloud computing and Software as a Service, will continue to provide the platform to enable successful business practices. In 2009, businesses learned how to do more with less. Applying 20/20 hindsight vision and lessons learned will inspire the 2010 technology decisions that will help businesses work harder and more efficiently for the next decade. In the process, businesses will work better and more effectively together to create a positive impact on the global economy and society.9
As noted previously, 2010 will see a continuation of the trend toward a tighter link between IT spending and business performance. Therefore, there were many similarities in the technology trends for 2010:
1 Foote Partners LLC, “Foote Partners 2010 Predictions,” 2009, www.footepartners.com/2010%20Predictions_FootePartners_121009.pdf2 Gammage, Brian; et al; “Top Predictions for IT Organizations and Users, 2010 and Beyond,” Gartner, 29 December 20093 Forrester, “Forrester: Enterprise Spending Plans For IT Services Are Mixed,” Press release, 12 November 2009, USA, www.forrester.com/ER/Press/Release/0,1769,1313,00.html4 Nash, Kim S.; “2010 State of the CIO: Today’s Focus for IT Departments - Business Opportunities,” CIO Magazine,17 December 2009, www.cio.com/article/511240/2010_State_of_the_CIO_Today_s_Focus_for_IT_Departments_Business_Opportunities_5 Mohan, Ram; “5 Infrastructure Trends to Watch for in 2010,” CIO Update, 29 May 2009, www.cioupdate.com/features/article.php/3822671/5-Infrastructure-Trend6 Ibid.7 Gens, Frank; “IDC Predictions 2010: Recovery and Transformation,” IDC Predictions Team, IDC, December 2009, www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=2209878 Op cit, Gammage9 Verizon Business, “Top 10 Hot Technology Trends for 2010,” Press release, 12 November 2009, www.verizonbusiness.com/about/news/displaynews.xml?newsid=25412&mode=vzlong
The trends noted here were compiled at the request of ISACA’s Strategy Advisory Council. After reviewing the document, the council believed that such a compilation would be of value to ISACA members and Journal readers. The compilation was summarized to fit within the pages of the Journal. Please see the references for more details.
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